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...Looking Forward 2025


Satellite with solar panels orbits above Earth at night, starry sky in background. "Xairos" text on the left in white.

The United Nations designated 2025 as the IYQ to celebrate a century of quantum development and to "increase public awareness of the importance of quantum science and applications."

Even though quantum is a recent discovery (and still not well understood), we have now reached the point where "quantum technology will exponentially accelerate the Fourth Industrial Revolution."


The First Quantum Revolution

The term "quantum" came from Albert Einstein's paper that described the lichtquanta, a particle of light (what we now call a photon), in 1905. This led to the theories and thought experiments that laid the groundwork for superposition, entanglement, the uncertainty principle, and other principles of quantum mechanics over the following decades. World War II disrupted this incredible period of discovery, and the race for the atomic bomb moved quantum from theory to the lab. This research led to the First Quantum Revolution with the advent of lasers, semiconductors, atomic clocks, and LEDs that take advantage of the bulk quantum properties of materials.


The Second Quantum Revolution

We are now in the midst of the Second Quantum Revolution where we are actually manipulating the quantum properties of individual particles for amazing applications.

While the First Quantum Revolution laid the foundation for understanding and applying quantum mechanics to develop technologies like transistors and lasers, the Second Quantum Revolution focuses on directly harnessing the fundamental principles of quantum information. This approach leverages quantum properties such as superposition, where a system can exist in multiple states simultaneously, and entanglement, where particles become deeply connected so that the state of one instantly influences the other.

This new generation of quantum technologies, which fall under three broad areas, are at different stages of maturity:

  • Quantum Computing is a new (but fundamentally different) type of computer that uses quantum bits (qubits) to solve optimization problems (like the famous traveling salesman problem) that are beyond the capabilities of today's computers.

  • Quantum Sensing uses the quantum properties of particles for very sensitive clocks, inertial, electromagnetic, gravity, and magnetic field sensors.

  • Quantum Communications leverages the quantum properties of photons and novel devices such as quantum memories and quantum transducers, primarily for security applications, including quantum random number generation (QRNG), quantum key distribution (QKD), quantum time transfer (QTT), and quantum networking.

Of these, quantum computing is the most famous (and gets the most funding), and the battle for quantum computing supremacy is heating up. Google announced their 105 qubit Willow chip, while Chinese researchers announced a similar capability with Zuchongzhi 3.0. But, more important than the number of qubits, is the problems that they can solve. Both Willow and Zuchongzhi performed Random Circuit Sampling (RCS) experiments in a few minutes that would take thousands of years on a classical supercomputer.


Quantum and Cybersecurity: Friend or Foe?

Quantum computing still has skeptics because the applications aren't well understood, with one notable exception: the ability to, one day, crack public key infrastructure (PKI). So preparations are underway to replace PKI ahead of this so-called Q-Day with either new software, known as post-quantum cryptography (PQC), or new hardware, known as quantum key distribution (QKD).

Mosca's Law (named after Michele Mosca, a pioneer in quantum cryptography) emphasizes the urgency of transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptographic systems. It highlights the interplay between the time required to replace vulnerable cryptographic systems and the time it takes for quantum computers to become powerful enough to break current cryptographic schemes.

PQC utilizes new encryption algorithms that, in theory, quantum computers cannot crack. But they require testing, with the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) evaluating suitable PQC options.

QKD delivers encryption keys through the quantum properties of photons, which makes it more robust - and more expensive - than PQC.

So with Mosca's Law in effect, there is a debate on the best solution; the US government encourages PQC, while other countries have embraced QKD or hybrid solutions.


Coming out of the Shadow of Quantum Computing

In the meantime quantum sensors and communications are already starting realize their commercial potential.

Very sensitive quantum sensors have shown an incredibly disruptive potential but, for the most part, need to be further developed into a commercially-viable package. The increased sensitivity allows detection of very weak signals in healthcare applications such as imaging brain activity, or remote detection for subterranean mineral deposit surveys. Additionally, connecting more sensors together in a networked configuration can further boost their accuracy and sensitivity.

Quantum communications hardware, on the other hand, are already being installed in cell phones, networks, and satellites, primarily for quantum-secure communications.

For both, position, navigation, and timing (PNT) is emerging as the killer app (see below).


Last Week's Theme: 2024 Looking Back...

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